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Survivor bias and the error of stability

salmanhussain1991@gmail.com by salmanhussain1991@gmail.com
May 26, 2023
in Marketing & Advertising
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The generosity of concealment | Seth’s Weblog
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An asteroid has by no means destroyed the Earth, subsequently an asteroid by no means will.

This model has been concerned in scandals earlier than, and it has all the time come again stronger, so there’s nothing to fret about.

There have been know-how modifications earlier than, however we’ve all the time managed to search out purchasers for what we do.

Survivor bias is the lure of solely contemplating the profitable entries when eager about danger. For instance, in the event you have a look at the efficiency of mutual funds after ten years, most of them appear to do fairly effectively. However that’s partly as a result of those that did actually poorly didn’t make it to 10 years.

We’re fortunate sufficient to dwell on a planet that hasn’t been destroyed by an asteroid. However that doesn’t imply that different planets haven’t had their life types extinguished–we’re merely unaware of them.

Previous efficiency isn’t any assure of the long run. Sorry.

We must always plan accordingly.





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